trading

Should I buy, sell or hodl?

| roger nunn

I’ve been trying to get my head around crypto for quite a while. I am convinced by the security if the blockchain itself as otherwise someone would have cracked it by now.

I am specifically writing about Bitcoin as it leads and the others follow. If the Bitcoin encryption had been broken the whole crypto market would have collapsed by now. There have been various suggestions that a quantum computer will break the encryption so it always a possible outcome.

In the meantime I am watching the oscillation of Bitcoin’s value (in US$) and to decide what to do.

Currently I’m hodling but it’s not an actual decision, it’s more like a lack of decision.

I am sure that an active decision is the right thing to do, that is my job for today.

Why write about Crypto

| roger nunn

I have been asked why I write about my own crypto adventures and why I don’t make videos, collect followers, and try to earn money.

I write down my thoughts as it helps me to clarify what I think about it. When I write, the action of having to put thoughts down empties my mind and stops me from thinking about it all the time.

Writing also helps me to see the development of crypto, to join in buying and selling, and not to get upset whenever t I don’t make any money.

It’s a new and rapidly developing industry, one that I am delighted to follow along with and to profit from sometimes.

If you find that my thoughts are helpful, then I am happy.

FUD is a tool to get your money.

| roger nunn

Fear Uncertainty and Doubt, three words hidden in the often used acronym, FUD.

FUD occurs when an article is written suggesting a problem of some kind exists for a token, coin, exchange or a new crypto development. There are many writers looking for news, some of whom will quote the story without checking its truth or validity.

Of course, once more and more people write about it, the FUD spreads very quickly and can cause a large price correction for the crypto involved, which goes on until the original FUD becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This means that the market prices can be manipulated by spreading a bit of FUD, with the perpetrators being able to buy assets at a reduced price.

The use of FUD together with articles that induce copious FOMO mean that high worth traders can make considerable profits at the cost to those who make trades based on emotions.

So, don’t buy at the top or sell at the bottom.

Sell as you make profit and only buy when your reading suggests that the token or coin is likely to rise.

Easy to say!

Choosing an alt coin

| roger nunn

I am happy to see that bitcoin is once again above 60000 US $. It means that hodling has proved to be a good strategy.

Now I’m looking for something that could give me a 100X return. I know that it’s risky but I accept the possibility of loss.

So how do I choose?

There are thousands of alt coins. I search for those with a Market Cap of at least 1 Billion and a token value of around 1 cent. I then look at the exchanges used and the daily turnover, selecting only those that are actively being traded on reputable exchanges.

Once I have a list of possibles, about 4 or 5, I then read about the uses of each one. At this point it becomes a bit subjective and I choose one that I like.

I then buy a bit and put it into a wallet.

Next I ignore it and wait and see.

I sometimes gain but have never had 100 X increase in value. I have also lost but I’m more likely to gain in the wake of an increase in the price of bitcoin.

That’s it!

To Hodl or not to hodl

| roger nunn

The crypto world is full of opportunity, opportunities to strike it rich and opportunities to lose a lot of money. The problem is to know what to do.

The control of money rules human activity, so there are huge numbers of people wanting to jump onto the bandwagon of easy money through crypto. The easy money idea is great but it is never guaranteed, it mostly comes with the luck of owning the right crypto at the right time and then selling at the right time.

The easy money idea is thwarted by our own greed and emotional involvement. We FOMO in as soon as free money seems to be on the horizon, like Dogecoin, where many people bought huge amounts after it had gone up. The extra buyers put further upward pressure on the price, increasing the FOMO induced purchasing even further.

It’s easy to find people online explaining how they got rich through buying Doge but not many are willing to admit how much they lost by buying at the top and watching its value drop. They perhaps had not realised that the price rise is fueled by new fiat money coming in, so when others sell their Doge and remove the money, prices drop.

I watch the daily fluctuations in the coins at the top of the market capitalisation tables. The prices have being going up and down like a yoyo recently but I have found that you have to monitor them constantly to make a profit over and above the costs of trading.

My decision for the moment is to HODL what I have and only sell when a coin gains more than 100%. Life is less stressful and it seems to me that having some crypto is important to be able to gain in the longer run.

So I HODL a selection of different coins and try hard not to suffer from FOMO.

What comes as well as crypto?

| roger nunn

I am happy that I got involved with crypto and spend some time every day listening to youtubers, checking prices and then trading.

It’s working but I don’t feel that I want to do only crypto trading. I have spent a lot of time looking for the new ways that technology will change our lives and how I can get involved with it.

I have looked at electric cars, AI, etc but don’t have the resources to get involved in a meaningful way.

I am involved now with remote analysis of local data, using a new technology called Mioty. It allows free long range and low power data transfer even when other tech fails due to excess users.

The Company is called Enduralink, getting onto a new tech as an early adopter.

https://www.investmentnetwork.sg/business-proposals/iot-industry-40-b2b-15-1178001

What’s next in crypto?

| roger nunn

No one knows the future, unless they control it. In crypto there are a number of parties battling for control of the technology and the wealth attached to it. A number of writers have compared the adoption of the blockchain to the adoption of the internet, with the fortunes that were lost and made.

As things are at the moment it seems that the use of the blockchain is increasing exponentially, with more and more uses appearing daily. The positive side of the development is the very high returns on investment for those who choose to invest in the winners.

Unfortunately, non-wealthy people like me cannot influence the market, nor can we easily guess what is going to succeed and what will fail. Right now we have had a huge drop (50%) in the value of Bitcoin with a corresponding drop in the value of the altcoins.

So what is the best strategy to follow. I prefer caution, which means minimising risks. So I continue to sell my coins when they have made a profit, and buy low. It’s difficult to decide, given that had I sold my hodlings a month ago I would have made more profit.

Could have! , Would have!, both ideas that rely on hindsight. So in keeping with the idea of caution, I have sold most of my holdings, taking profits on them.

I hope that we are in a bear market and intend to buy more in the Autumn, depending on whether or not there has been further drops. At least I am in profit now, even if the markets shoot up.

I have kept small amounts of some coins anyway, so even if there is a big rise in prices, I will still make profits.

Having said all that, it’s easier to make profits in a rising market, and I like it when all the charts are green.

Is crypto finished?

| roger nunn

Whenever Bitcoin changes value the rest of the crypto market reacts, usually mimicking Bitcoin’s moves. There are many opportunities to make money buy strategically buying and selling other coins, provided that you time their changes against the value of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s value dropped by half in the last couple of weeks, which brought out the doomsayers, with endless reports about the end of Bitcoin.

In reality it is a bit more complicated. Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency and because of its inherent limitations in terms of speed, has morphed into a store of value rather than a useful tool.

The rest of the crypto world is developing quickly with new coins and tokens coming online all the time, most of which have specific use cases. The development of the crypto world is very competitive with their relative values changing constantly, as was the case for web based businesses in the early days of the internet.

So I believe that as the crypto market matures, there will be many opportunities to make money. However there will be many opportunities to lose money as well, which is why I have only invested money that I can afford to risk.

Now each Bitcoin is worth close to US$ 40k, taken by many to be a disaster. Many panicked and sold their holdings at a loss, a stupid thing to do and one that only exacerbated the situation.

At $40k, each bitcoin is worth about 4 times what it was a year ago, so profit is still the order of the day.

Anyway, I don’t like the current sideways movement of Bitcoin’s value as big fluctuations provide a better opportunity for me to buy and sell at a profit.

Crypto in a falling market

| roger nunn

For the past couple of weeks the crypto market has fallen quite a lot. Actually, Bitcoin took a huge dive and the rest of the market followed.

I look at it like a set of planets hanging on elastic with the market capitalisation of each being equivalent to the gravity of each. This means that as one crypto is affected by an outside event all the others are affected too, one way or another.

The analogy isn’t very good but it gives me a way of watching the value of coins relative to others that I hold, rather than just watching the price in $.

For me there are far too many coins and tokens to monitor so I have selected about 25 that I watch. I add or remove them as news changes my focus.

When one of my trading coins goes up relative to another I trade, regardless of the hype, and so increase my overall holdings. It is slow but it steadily builds a portfolio.

I get my share of FOMO when I see a coin going to the moon but I don’t buy after it’s gone up. I only buy the red ones. Green means sell.

Btw, it doesn’t always work. Sometimes I buy and it goes on dropping. Then I wait.